Coconuts
Start freeWhat implied probability tells you
A price of +150 (decimal 2.50) implies a 40% chance. If you think the real chance is higher than the price implies, the price is in your favour; if lower, it isn't. Nobody knows the real chance for sure, which is why comparing prices across books (and against a sharp, low-margin market) matters more than any single opinion.
Remember that one book's implied probabilities include its margin. Strip it out with the no-vig calculator to see the fair version.